I thought I'd try to recreate the effect using other products, and something less high-tech, to see if the effect holds. I decided to look on Amazon for the price of books in the US History section. Amazon has these sorted by popularity, which makes it easy to run the calculation. Check out the results for prices (sorted from most popular (left) to least) and the cumulative mean, median, and standard deviation:
What can we learn from this? Well, for starters, the same effect (thought very slight) shows up here. In the second graph, the blue squares are the cumulative mean, and you can see that after they settle out (some initial noise due to low sample count), they do in fact rise slightly with decreasing popularity. Interesting.However, it is also clear that the cumulative median is almost flat. That means (roughly) that your "average book" is still priced the same, but there are more high outliers. This also shows up in the rising standard deviation.
While this trend appeared interesting at first glance, I have two criticisms. First, shouldn't we expect that if it's difficult to know quality a priori, cheaper will be more popular? Second, at least in the case of books, the trend appears so weak as to be almost irrelevant.
There seem to be plausible reasons for believing amazon books follow supply-demand price rationality. Low volume books (ie low demand) have higher marginal costs (ie low supply) because storage, production, distribution, etc costs can't be distributed over as many books. It is at least plausible that the high demand for Harry Potter is more than offset by the low marginal costs resulting from the book's economy of scale.
ReplyDeleteBut can the same be said for ebooks? The marginal costs seem much much flatter, and it's harder to understand why highly demanded books aren't more expensive, relative to low-demand books.
Do you have any insight into the relative supply-side costs for low and high volume books compared to ebooks? Is it is possible that ebooks are saddled by some sort of one-time licensing cost that would give ebooks a similarly decreasing marginal cost?
I wasn't expecting a law student to beat me over the head with marginal economics ;)
ReplyDeleteYour point is good though. You're showing that there's a supply side to the story (marginal costs), whereas I only focused on the demand side (as a function of price).
Regarding one-time licensing costs, these should be irrelevant to pricing, if I'm remembering micro-econ correctly. Pricing should be done to maximize profits (based on marginal costs and marginal revenues). Once you've estimated maximum profits (a priori), you decide if that offers a sufficient profit over the up-front investment required. If yes, go; if not, no go. A posteriori, those costs are sunk. Either way (before or after the fact), they should be irrelevant to pricing.
The pricing licensing is an interesting story all of its own though. Until recently, I think Apple and Amazon were trying to force different models. One gave the publisher pricing control, and simply demanded a percentage (Apple). The other offered a higher percentage, but stipulated a fixed and lower price (Amazon). I may be mixing the two sides, plus I think this changed when Amazon recently caved in to eBook publishers and agreed to let them control pricing. Someone who knows more should step in...
Actually, in the previous model of e-book sales the publishers did set the price--the wholesale price. Amazon set the retail price, which in some cases was lower than the wholesale price (i.e., Amazon was subsidising the product for its customers). Paper book sales still work this way.
ReplyDelete